With the 2017 elections less than two years away, three governors have announced the launch of political movements that will play a role in the polls and after.
Governors Peter Munya (Meru), Isaac Rutto (Bomet) and Alfred Mutua (Machakos) have all said that they are launching their own political movements.
The move by the three is not only seen as a political manoeuvre for 2017 but also as a launch pad for their entry into President Uhuru Kenyatta's succession battle, if he gets a second term.
All three governors have said their political movements are aimed at championing the interests of devolution and development.
However, a closer look at the three shows they are all interested in joining the race to succeed President Kenyatta, who will be seeking reelection in 2017.
Munya and Rutto, who got elected under the Jubilee coalition, have declared their support for Uhuru in 2017, while Mutua, who was elected on a Cord ticket, is perceived to be an ally of the President.
All three are distancing themselves from the plans by their original parties for the 2017 elections and focusing on giving their supporters an alternative political route.
For Munya and Rutto, their 2013 parties, the Alliance Party of Kenya and the United Republican Party respectively, are part of those dissolving to form the Jubilee Party.
For Mutua, Wiper remains in the opposition Cord with its leader Kalonzo Musyoka trying to wrestle ODM's Raila Odinga for the coalition's 2017 ticket.
County chiefs eye Uhuru Succession in 2022
Mutua has yet to formally announce whether he will be running for the Presidency in 2022, unlike his other two colleagues, but the grapevine has it that he is a likely candidate.
Deputy President William Ruto is perceived as the automatic replacement for Uhuru, who will not be eligible to run in 2022 if he wins the Presidency in 2017.
Munya is said to be working hard to compete with Meru Senator Kiraitu Murungi to be Ruto's running mate in 2022, with the DP expected to get his number two from the Mt Kenya region.
Kiraitu has already positioned himself as the most senior Mt Kenya politician after Uhuru by virtue of his position as the co-chair of the steering committee in the President’s new outfit, the Jubilee Party.
“It is a turning point in Mount Kenya East politics. We have made a wise decision to dissolve our parties, as we support President Uhuru Kenyatta and his deputy William Ruto in 2017 and 2022," Kiraitu said.
The Star has established that as part of the new Jubilee Party structure, Kiraitu would be the deputy party leader, with Uhuru as patron and Ruto as the party leader.
Kiraitu is said to be preparing to use this as his stepping stone to becoming Deputy President under Ruto, on the assumption that the DP will run and win in 2022.
Munya is said to also be interested in the same position and sees a political party as the best bargaining tool once the time comes in 2022.
Munya said he will not be forming a new party but will instead pick an existing one and rebrand it once the Alliance Party of Kenya dissolves to join the Jubilee Party.
“It’s going to be a big party with support from across the country. It will be a party that can be joined by those who want to lead the country. Its key leadership will be from Mt Kenya East and it will carry the vision of the region in leading the country because we are not lacking in talent,” Munya said.
Last October, Munya was endorsed by some Meru and Tharaka Nithi APK delegates to vie for President in 2022, and tasked to form a new party that he would use to seek reelection in 2017.
The Rutto and Keter factors without Ruto
Rutto, a former ally of Ruto’s now turned his fiercest critic has already acquired the Mashinani Development Party of Kenya, which he is planning to use to build himself as the Rift Valley kingpin.
The DP, by virtual of his position, is considered the Rift Valley kingpin but with the ICC case still hanging over his head, the region is cautious on who replaces him, if need be.
Allies of Ruto are said to have concluded that Energy Cabinet Secretary Charles Keter is the second-most senior politician from the region.
This has led the Bomet Governor to register the new political outfit as a way of boxing in the South Rift vote bloc where he draws much of his support from.
The registration of Rutto's political machine, the Mashinani (grassroots), has ended months of speculation about the governor’s political game plan.
Governor Rutto named influential former Bomet Mayor David ‘Socrates’ Sang as the party's national chairman, with Samburu political activist David Lemeketo as secretary general.
In December, the governor welcomed the move to dissolve the Jubilee affiliate parties, saying they had outlived their usefulness.
Rutto, however, said he will not join the new Jubilee Party as the affiliate parties were not consulted.
“I’m happy the President has seen the wisdom to dissolve these parties and thus freed us to join parties of our own. I’m not joining the Jubilee Party because, just like JAP, its formation is devoid of consultation,” the governor said.
Meeting Kipsigis professionals and former councillors in Kericho town last Saturday, Rutto said he will run for President.
“I will only declare my interest at the right time, which probably could even be in 2022. It is the electorate who will decide in 2022 who will be their President, leave alone the succession rhetoric we hear every other day. We actually need a break from that and leave Kenyans to decide for themselves,” he said.
Rutto's party already has a candidate in the February 12 by-election in Nyangores Ward, where he will test his popularity against the Jubilee wave.
MDPK is also expected to field a candidate in the Kericho senatorial by-election, which would be an acid test for the Jubilee Party in the March 7 mini-poll.
The Raila and Kalonzo factors
There are indications Cord leader Raila Odinga’s ODM brigade may back out of the Kericho race to support Governor Rutto’s candidate as part of a deal to weaken the DP’s influence in the region.
Amid earlier indications that URP would fold up before the end of last year, Governor Rutto entered into a deal with the little-known People’s Patriotic Party of Kenya, whose name was changed to the Mashinani Development Party of Kenya.
Rutto formed the party in the expectation that Uhuru and Ruto were planning to clip Jubilee rebels’ wings and force them into the Jubilee Party, or push them out of office through amendments to the Political Parties Act.
Mutua, who appears to have fallen out with Kalonzo, launched the Maendeleo Chap Chap movement last weekend, promising to make it national.
Kalonzo has called a Wiper meeting next week to discuss how to deal with Mutua, who the party says appears to have jumped ship.
Mutua said that his Maendeleo Chap Chap is not a political party but a rallying call for Kenyans who are development- oriented to join hands.
“I am a good member of the Wiper Democratic Movement and I have struggled a lot to remain in it. I cannot understand why I am being pushed. All I have done is steer development. Maendeleo Chap Chap is a political, social-economic movement. We urge Kenyans to join the development-based movement so we can spread it across the country,” Mutua said.
Though Mutua has not publicly declared his future political intentions after Machakos, there are those in Jubilee who are keen to have him as the Ukambani point man.
Mutua is seen as the replacement for former Lands Cabinet Secretary Charity Ngilu, who was forced out of government after she was charged for alleged corruption.
Those close to the Governor say that his “development chorus” is aimed at portraying him as one who is interested in transformation.
State House operatives close to the Uhuru see Mutua as a likely replacement for Ruto, in the event that the DP’s ICC case becomes a hindrance in 2017 or 2022.
However, the Star has also learnt that this suggestion is not going down well with the Ruto allies, who believe that the DP, if need be, can only be replaced by someone from the Rift Valley.