ALMOST from Day One of the Jubilee Administration and until earlier this year, the political divides of the 2013 General Election remained as if cast in stone. Only once before in a Kenyan election cycle has such a lack of political fluidity been the case for longer – in the run-up to the March 4, 2013 poll.
It was widely assumed that devolution would decommission political flux for good. The return of flux in the political arena at this point in time and in this manner is all the more amazing for happening against the backdrop of devolution.
For the first time in post-Independence Kenya, the Presidency has lost many of its goodies distribution power, privilege and patronage to other centres of power – the 47 governors. Even the Presidency’s power to manoeuvre is at its most limited, thanks to the Constitution of Kenya 2010. For instance, State House can no longer punish an entire region.
The President has to strictly cleave to the Constitution, right down to parastatal appointments. And yet the phenomenon of flux has kicked in again, much to Cord’s detriment.
Before this, Jubilee has remained jubilant and Cord remained corded and the red line between incumbency and opposition was not crossed until now, with the exception of the appointment to the Cabinet of ODM legislators Joseph Nkaissery (Interior) and Dan Kazungu (Mining). They ceased being MPs and cannot engage in politics as long as they are ministers.
And then, suddenly, there was movement across party and coalition lines, with the ruling Jubilee Coalition attracting the first prospective hoppers and the opposition formation Cord seemingly on the defensive.
In the run-up to the 11th General Election in 2013, fluidity did not kick in until less than six months before what was Kenya’s second only Presidential transition poll (the first had been Daniel Moi’s exit and Mwai Kibaki’s triumph in 2002).
In 2012 Ruto’s United Republican Party and Uhuru’s The National Alliance were formed in March and May respectively and formed the Jubilee Coalition on December 2 at Afraha Stadium when both men exchanged and donned party caps.
The UhuRuto ticket and the tyranny of numbers narrative were born.
With the return of flux in 2016, a dynamic situation is unfolding. And it is happening earlier than the crafting of the UhuRuto alliance, exactly a year before the 12th General Election. As with 2013, there is no telling where it will go, but we may speculate and point out that the massive difference this time round is that UhuRuto enjoy all the benefits of incumbency.
And although fluidity goes both ways, people run towards power, not away from it, at historical junctions such as this one, especially in Kenyan presidential politics. Jubilee is giving the impression that its second term is as good as in the bag as all it has to do is broaden its massive base.
Inside Cord, the prospect of another five-year cycle out of government at the national level is being considered as out of the question at the top but at lower levels there appear to be more people than expected even as recently as three months ago who increasingly think that Jubilee is indeed the party of power – even in 2017.
Tensions will skyrocket inside both coalitions. The ruling Jubilee has embarked on a seemingly herculean task – trying to rope in ODM/Cord’s Western vote bloc, an opposition epicenter. Jubilee has also gone for the Kisii, Coast and Eastern blocs, with both President Uhuru Kenyatta and Deputy President William Ruto meeting with delegations of selected Cord legislators both at State House and at the DP’s Sugoi home and official residence in Karen, Nairobi.
Some Western strategists have gone so far as to demand that Jubilee offer the Nairobi Governor position to a Western candidate, the frontrunner for now being Water CS Eugene Wamalwa. Also demanded by the Western prospective defectors is the position of Speaker of the 12th Parliament, again to a non-Mt Kenyan and non-Rift Valley candidate but preferably Western figure.
And then on Tuesday President Kenyatta launched the merger of a dozen ruling coalition affiliate parties into the Jubilee Party in State House grounds, Nairobi. It was an unusual move. First it was billed on Monday as a Presidential address to the nation concerning the new Jubilee Party that would be broadcast live nationwide.
On Tuesday morning it turned out to be the merger itself, from State House! This was unprecedented. Not even founding President Jomo Kenyatta used State House for party political purposes. Even his successor Daniel arap Moi, under whom Kanu reached its single-party heyday as the only legitimate political party, confined Kanu events and announcements to Kanu Headquarters and Secretariat at the Kenyatta International Conference Centre.
As long ago as 1966, before the KICC was built and a number of floors reserved for Kanu HQ, Jomo and Tom Mboya, Kanu’s first and most powerful secretary general, staged founding Vice President Jaramogi Oginga Odinga’s downfall at the Limuru Conference Centre, in what was dubbed the Limuru Conference. They could have used State House if they had so wished, but they kept a firm divide between State and party affairs.
The Jubilee Party’s sheer size, the unprecedented merger in State House’s Rose Garden and the ruling coalition’s incumbency swagger (it runs on a narrative of being in office until 2028) are all meant to paint the picture of the JP as the Party of Government.
The JP’s much-expanded outreach is not yet necessarily an expanded base. By reaching out far beyond the Mt Kenya and Rift Valley factors, the JP is taking high risks at a most sensitive time. The idea of Wamalwa as the next Nairobi Governor has sparked off massive resentment and frustration among the Jubilee faithful and loyalists in the capital city and the extended Mt Kenya region.
Those who are dead set against the Wamalwa proposal include Dagoretti MP Dennis Waweru, whose supporters are in no doubt whatever can win and make an outstanding Governor.
There is a serious problem here for Jubilee, especially given the treatment meted out by a Central Kenya audience to elder statesman Noah Wekesa, a Westerner, the co-chairman of the Jubilee Party National Steering Committee alongside Meru Senator Kiraitu Murungi.
This former long-serving Cabinet minister had to be whisked away by his security and regular police from a function at the iconic Ufungamano House at which he was presiding over a defection from Cord to Jubilee when a youthful, non-opposition crowd turned rowdy.
Should this sort of scene become more frequent, including in such hotspots as Maasailand and Kisiiland, it could pose a major complication for Jubilee.
Two trends could emerge – the inflow into Jubilee of Cord defectors could seriously hurt the ruling party’s loyalists.
Inside Cord, the departure of figureheads who cannot countenance five more years out in the cold at the national government level has yet to show definitive signs that they have moved with substantial sections of their vote blocs. If it does, the die is cast.
The beginning of the return of flux, the resignations from Raila’s ODM of the then secretary general Ababu Namwamba and vice-chairman Paul Otuoma, who nonetheless remain MPs, was initially dismissed as of no consequence. But the former PM promptly visited Western and held almost 40 meetings, urging his largest vote bloc not to follow the “defectors”.
There is a long tradition in Western of the vote bloc not following presumptive defectors, including two consecutive VPs of the Republic, whose elevated positions seemed to count for nothing when it most mattered to the individuals concerned and the government of the day.
Raila’s tours of Western in Namwamba and Otuoma’s wake put on a brave face but were undoubtedly meant to detect any shifts at the grassroots.
Before the return of the flux it was almost unthinkable that Cord stalwarts such as Namwamba and Otuoma could try so vigorously to rock the boat in the name of “the Mulembe nation joining government”.
The same day President Kenyatta unveiled the merger in State House grounds, former Raila ally and implacable Jubilee foe William ole Ntimama led a delegation of Maasai supporters in announcing the community’s desire to rejoin government. Ntimama was one of Prime Minister Odinga’s most steadfast backers during the Grand Coalition regime.
Ntimama spoke of wide and deep consultation within the Maasai community resulting in the decision to back Jubilee. “
“We Maasais have spoken and we have decided to support you and join Jubilee,” the elder statesman of the community told President Kenyatta. Ntimama also assured Uhuru he would visit all the Maasai-speaking regions and rally support for the Jubilee Party.
The big picture is that Cord is losing people to Jubilee for the first time but the big question remains whether these folk are moving with meaningful sections of their vote blocs. Both this picture and question can only be clarified and resolved on Election Day.